Has NBA learned lesson from NFL lockout?

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Nearly three months have passed since the NFL's lockout began. Lawsuits, court rulings, heartfelt pleas, dramatic pronouncements and insulting tweets have followed, but the stalemate remains.

Recent legal proceedings have clearly favored owners, providing the league with judicial leverage and erasing initial gains given to players. At the same time, the NFL's growing advantage in the courtroom is being viewed with wide eyes by the NBA, which sees the NFL's case as an ongoing experiment.

Basketball's collective bargaining agreement (CBA) expires June 30. While the NFL waits, the NBA watches.

"Both sides are very aware of what's happened in the NFL and the disruption to their business caused by the work stoppage," NBA deputy commissioner Adam Silver said. "And I think I can speak for both the owners and the union in that we want to avoid, at all costs, entering into any type of work stoppage or, certainly, a lockout."

Sports labor lawyers and analysts say that is almost impossible. Too much remains at stake with too little time, and National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) executive director Billy Hunter acknowledged last week that no progress has been made during recent talks.
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Gary Roberts, dean and professor at the Indiana University Law School-Indianapolis, predicts a more immediate setback for the NBPA.

Roberts said there is "no question" that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit in St. Louis will again rule in the NFL's favor after a Friday hearing, preserving owners' legal rights to a lockout, while possibly using language that advocates for the dismissal of the National Football League Players Association's (NFLPA) antitrust lawsuit.

"Neither side is going to make any concessions until we see how the NFL lawsuit plays out," said Roberts, who also serves as the NFL Network's on-air legal analyst.

The NBPA is stronger and more prepared than it was during the 1998-99 lockout. Hunter has refused to cave in and accept a repressive deal, while NBPA president Derek Fisher is a proud, captivating leader.

But NFL players have already lost legal footing, despite the league raking in $9 billion in annual revenue. How will it look in court when the NBPA presents its case, Roberts wonders, after the NBA claims it lost $300 million this season and 22 of 30 teams are running a deficit?

"I think the majority of the NBA owners are perfectly happy to shut down for a year or two because that means they won't lose $25 million a year," Roberts said.
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"The NBA and the NFL are in very different circumstances."

Roberts believes the NFL will ultimately win its litigation, with new CBA talks peaking in August, allowing the league to possibly play a full regular-season schedule in 2011-12.

Larry Coon, a CBA expert and ESPN.com contributor predicts the NBA lockout could stretch through January, though, with owners eventually breaking players by luring in lesser-name athletes with the promise of much-needed paychecks.

And the normally optimistic Silver found common ground with Roberts, acknowledging that the NBA's worst-case scenario would mirror the NHL's lost 2004-05 season.

While the NFL's main fight is based on splitting a large pile of cash, the NBA's battles are more complicated and dig much deeper.

Pro basketball's soft salary cap favors large-market teams; guaranteed contracts are a boon to some and a plague to many; star players have little incentive to remain with the small-market clubs that drafted them; and everything from revenue sharing to athletes' profits are at stake. A steadfast league wants a 50-50 split.

"The biggest damning piece of evidence right now is that the NBA is really doing great," said Patrick Rishe, a sports-business professor at Webster University in St. Louis. "The ratings for the postseason are fantastic. There's been a lot more enthusiasm and excitement for the sport in the last couple of years. And yet, they've seen the teams' profits dwindle. That's not a good combination."

But it's currently working in the league's favor, and a likely lockout is just 32 days away.